Methodology

We don't trust single-point predictions. Instead, we use Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) to simulate 1,000 parallel futures for an asset. By analyzing the stock's historical volatility (Beta) and drift, we project thousands of potential price paths.

The results you see aren't guarantees—they are probabilities.

• Mean Price: The average outcome of all 1,000 simulations.
• Upper 95%: An optimistic scenario (top 5% of outcomes).
• Lower 5% (VaR): A pessimistic scenario. This helps you understand "Value at Risk".

Market data is sourced via yahooquery, providing real-time pricing and fundamental metrics. However, all financial trading involves risk. StochasTrack is a research tool, not a financial advisor.